On this week’s edition of Stock Talk with Joe Rabil, Joe uses a chart of AAPL to demonstrate how properly using a MACD and ADX indicator combo increases your chances of success. He analyzes 10-Year Yields, Bitcoin, Tesla, Datadog, and ServiceNow. Going through all the sectors, Joe explains how the RS line is showing only two sectors outperforming the SPX so far this year. Joe dives into the technology sector and shows how to use ACP to identify specific stocks looking attractive inside a strong industry group.

This video was originally published on July 3, 2024. Click this link to watch on StockCharts TV.

Archived episodes of the show are available at this link. Send symbol requests to stocktalk@stockcharts.com; you can also submit a request in the comments section below the video on YouTube. Symbol Requests can be sent in throughout the week prior to the next show.

In this edition of StockCharts TV‘s The Final Bar, available to watch below, Dave recaps a shortened trading session marked by strength in the technology sector, potential breakouts in gold stocks, and key levels to watch as the S&P 500 index makes a new closing high on seasonal market strength. He also breaks down the charts of SMH, GLD, TSLA, NEM, HUM and DASH.

See Dave’s chart showing daily advancers-decliners for the NYSE here.

This video originally premiered on July 3, 2024. Watch on our dedicated Final Bar page on StockCharts TV!

New episodes of The Final Bar premiere every weekday afternoon. You can view all previously recorded episodes at this link.

Amazon (AMZN) has broken out into all-time high territory, closing at $200.02 (above last week’s all-time high mark of $199.84).

AMZN stock is firing on all cylinders and ready to take on all AI titans as it enters the space from the e-commerce angle. Some analysts believe Amazon’s AI initiatives—particularly in healthcare, advertising, e-commerce, and cloud computing—could push the company towards a massive $3 trillion valuation.

Amazon dominates US e-commerce with a whopping 37.6% market share, and its AWS leads the cloud market. Given its dominant position and AI adoption, analysts predict nearly 30% annual earnings growth for the next few years.

Analyzing AMZN Stock, Technically

Technically, as is the case fundamentally, AMZN’s price action is firing on all cylinders (see chart below).

CHART 1. DAILY CHART OF AMAZON. Amazon’s SCTR score is over the 90 line, which is exceedingly bullish.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

AMZN’s SCTR score is now soaring above the 90 line (dashed line in top panel), which indicates technical bullishness across several indicators and timeframes. Based on the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) reading, buying pressure and momentum show no signs of slowing.

Eyes on AMZN Stock Breakout Point

Amazon just breached the $199.84 level (see heavy dotted-blue line on AMZN stock price chart), entering all-time high territory. Analysts’ top price target is $245, which could change based on broader economic conditions and Amazon’s AI moves in the coming quarters.

All rallies take a break. If AMZN’s stock price dips, the following are key support zones to watch for buying opportunities:

First stop. Between $191 and $192, where AMZN broke above its 2021 all-time highs.
Next up. Amazon’s price often bounces off the 50-day and 100-day simple moving averages (SMAs), which investors use as entry points. These might continue to be solid buy zones.
Broader range. The Ichimoku Cloud lays out additional support levels, aligning with current supports. The green, rising, and widening cloud is a bullish sign.

It’s About Earnings

Amazon expects to report its next earnings on August 1, 2024, after market close (this is subject to change). Earnings results and guidance can significantly sway market sentiment, so keep a close eye on the levels if you’re trying to time your buys (or sells).

The Bottom Line

AMZN’s stock price smashed its all-time high, closing at $200.02. With its dominance in e-commerce and cloud computing, and now combined with new AI initiatives, some analysts see a path to a $3 trillion valuation. Technically, Amazon’s indicators are bullish, with the SCTR score soaring and strong buying momentum. Keep an eye on support zones if the stock dips, and watch out for the next earnings report.

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

In this video from StockCharts TV, Julius assesses the long-term trends as they are playing out on the monthly S&P 500 sector charts. He takes a look into the future using the expected seasonal trends for the month of July. Markets are still going higher, but the path ahead is narrowing.

Click here to see Julius’ public ChartList.

This video was originally broadcast on July 1, 2024. Click anywhere on the icon above to view on our dedicated page for Julius.

Past episodes of Julius’ shows can be found here.

#StayAlert, -Julius

S&P 500 earnings are in for 2024 Q1, and here is our valuation analysis.

The following chart shows the normal value range of the S&P 500 Index, indicating where the S&P 500 would have to be in order to have an overvalued P/E of 20 (red line), a fairly valued P/E of 15 (blue line), or an undervalued P/E of 10 (green line). Annotations on the right side of the chart show where the range is projected to be, based upon earnings estimates through 2025 Q1.

Historically, price has usually remained below the top of the normal value range (red line); however, since about 1998, it has not been uncommon for price to exceed normal overvalue levels, sometimes by a lot. The market has been mostly overvalued since 1992, and it has not been undervalued since 1984. We could say that this is the “new normal,” except that it isn’t normal by GAAP (Generally Accepted Accounting Principles) standards.

We use GAAP earnings as the basis for our analysis. The table below shows earnings projections through March 2025. Keep in mind that the P/E estimates are calculated based upon the S&P 500 close as of March 29, 2024. They will change daily depending on where the market goes from here. It is notable that the P/E is outside the normal range.

The following table shows where the bands are projected be, based upon earnings estimates through 2025 Q1.

This DecisionPoint chart keeps track of S&P 500 fundamentals, P/E, and yield, and it is updated daily — not that you need to watch it that closely, but it is up-to-date when you need it.

CONCLUSION: The market is still very overvalued and the P/E is still well above the normal range. Earnings have ticked down, but are projected to trend higher for the next four quarters. Being overvalued doesn’t require an immediate decline to bring valuation back within the normal range, but high valuation applies negative pressure to the market environment.

Watch the latest episode of DecisionPoint on StockCharts TV’s YouTube channel here!

(c) Copyright 2024 DecisionPoint.com

Technical Analysis is a windsock, not a crystal ball.

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author, and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.

DecisionPoint is not a registered investment advisor. Investment and trading decisions are solely your responsibility. DecisionPoint newsletters, blogs or website materials should NOT be interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any security or to take any specific action.

Helpful DecisionPoint Links:

DecisionPoint Alert Chart List

DecisionPoint Golden Cross/Silver Cross Index Chart List

DecisionPoint Sector Chart List

DecisionPoint Chart Gallery

Trend Models

Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO)

On Balance Volume

Swenlin Trading Oscillators (STO-B and STO-V)

ITBM and ITVM

SCTR Ranking

Bear Market Rules

In this edition of StockCharts TV‘s The Final Bar, available to watch below, Dave celebrates the S&P 500 closing above 5500, laments the lack of market breadth, and provides updates on the infamous Hindenburg Omen. He also breaks down key levels to watch on charts of V, MA, TSLA, and more.

This video originally premiered on July 2, 2024. Watch on our dedicated Final Bar page on StockCharts TV!

New episodes of The Final Bar premiere every weekday afternoon. You can view all previously recorded episodes at this link.

Today’s DP Trading Room was jam packed! The lead story is definitely the fact that deflation is another possibility that many are not talking about. We don’t know if it will be the final outcome, but we have a link that discusses this possibility: https://hoisington.com/economic_overview.html

Carl also covered the market in general and then showed us how to use the PMO Sort with StockCharts’ Candleglance. It organizes the components and compares their PMO values listing the strongest at the top and the weakest at the bottom. The PMO can be compared among all indexes, stocks and ETFs.

Carl exhibits our new Russell 2000 (IWM) “Under the Hood” chart and explains how we use the SP600 participation readings to understand what the internals might be for IWM.

Both Carl and Erin discussed the new found strength in the Energy sector. Erin points out that Coal is looking particularly strong right now. She shares some symbols from this area with viewers: ARLP, CEIX, HNRG and SXC.

Finally Erin finishes with a look at viewer symbol requests with eye toward the weekly charts and setting entries and exits.

01:15 DecisionPoint Signal Tables

04:09 Market Overview

09:52 Magnificent Seven

14:42 Russell 2000 (IWM)

15:52 Deflation Discussion

19:48 PMO Sort Examples

22:41 Energy Sector Discussion

24:25 Bitcoin

25:38 Gold Miners

26:53 Sector Rotation + Industry Groups to Watch (Coal, Regional Banks)

33:00 Symbol Requests

Watch the latest episode of the DecisionPointTrading Room on DP’s YouTube channel here!

Try us out for two weeks with a trial subscription!

Use coupon code: DPTRIAL2 at checkout!

Technical Analysis is a windsock, not a crystal ball. –Carl Swenlin

(c) Copyright 2024 DecisionPoint.com

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author, and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.

DecisionPoint is not a registered investment advisor. Investment and trading decisions are solely your responsibility. DecisionPoint newsletters, blogs or website materials should NOT be interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any security or to take any specific action.

Helpful DecisionPoint Links:

Trend Models

Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO)

On Balance Volume

Swenlin Trading Oscillators (STO-B and STO-V)

ITBM and ITVM

SCTR Ranking

Bear Market Rules

Today’s DP Trading Room was jam packed! The lead story is definitely the fact that deflation is another possibility that many are not talking about. We don’t know if it will be the final outcome, but we have a link that discusses this possibility: https://hoisington.com/economic_overview.html

Carl also covered the market in general and then showed us how to use the PMO Sort with StockCharts’ Candleglance. It organizes the components and compares their PMO values listing the strongest at the top and the weakest at the bottom. The PMO can be compared among all indexes, stocks and ETFs.

Carl exhibits our new Russell 2000 (IWM) “Under the Hood” chart and explains how we use the SP600 participation readings to understand what the internals might be for IWM.

Both Carl and Erin discussed the new found strength in the Energy sector. Erin points out that Coal is looking particularly strong right now. She shares some symbols from this area with viewers: ARLP, CEIX, HNRG and SXC.

Finally Erin finishes with a look at viewer symbol requests with eye toward the weekly charts and setting entries and exits.

01:15 DecisionPoint Signal Tables

04:09 Market Overview

09:52 Magnificent Seven

14:42 Russell 2000 (IWM)

15:52 Deflation Discussion

19:48 PMO Sort Examples

22:41 Energy Sector Discussion

24:25 Bitcoin

25:38 Gold Miners

26:53 Sector Rotation + Industry Groups to Watch (Coal, Regional Banks)

33:00 Symbol Requests

Watch the latest episode of the DecisionPointTrading Room on DP’s YouTube channel here!

Try us out for two weeks with a trial subscription!

Use coupon code: DPTRIAL2 at checkout!

Technical Analysis is a windsock, not a crystal ball. –Carl Swenlin

(c) Copyright 2024 DecisionPoint.com

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author, and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.

DecisionPoint is not a registered investment advisor. Investment and trading decisions are solely your responsibility. DecisionPoint newsletters, blogs or website materials should NOT be interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any security or to take any specific action.

Helpful DecisionPoint Links:

Trend Models

Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO)

On Balance Volume

Swenlin Trading Oscillators (STO-B and STO-V)

ITBM and ITVM

SCTR Ranking

Bear Market Rules

Good morning and welcome to this week’s Flight Path. “Go” bars were the order of the week again for U.S. equities and the end of the week saw a return to strong blue bars. Treasury bond prices also were able to maintain “Go” bars but ended the week showing weakness. U.S. commodity index painted a full week of weaker aqua “Go” bars while the dollar continued to show strength with strong blue bars.

$SPY Remains in “Go” Trend but Struggles with New Highs

Price hit an intra week high again this week but we saw Friday close lower. GoNoGo Trend painted strong blue bars at the end of the week and so we know the trend remains strong. GoNoGo Oscillator has fallen from overbought territory and volume is light as it crashes toward the zero line. So, we have momentum waning but price holding on to trend. We will watch to see what happens as the oscillator gets to zero and we will look for it to find support if the trend is to remain healthy.

Price crept higher this week and we saw another strong blue “Go” bar which makes it 8 in a row. GoNoGo Oscillator has peaked but is still overbought at a value of 5. We will look to see if momentum continues to wane and if so we’ll see a Go Countertrend Correction Icon (red arrow) that will indicate a likely pause and a struggle for prices to go higher in the short term.

Treasury Rates Still in “NoGo” Trend but Paints Weaker Pink Bars

Treasury rates climbed this week after last week’s low and we see that GoNoGo Trend paints a few weaker pink bars. The weight of the evidence still points to a “NoGo” trend but we will watch to see if it holds this week. GoNoGo Oscillator has rallied and is testing the zero level from below. If it is rejected here, we will likely see a new leg down in price.

Dollar Sees Continued Strength as Price Makes New Highs

Price hit new highs this week and GoNoGo Trend painted a week of uninterrupted strong blue “Go” bars. We will look for price to consolidate at these levels using support from prior highs in May. GoNoGo Oscillator has flatlined at a value of 3 and so is in positive territory but not yet overbought. Volume is heavy.

In this edition of StockCharts TV‘s The Final Bar, available to watch below, Dave lays out the strong seasonal pattern for the S&P 500 in July, highlights the breakouts in AAPL and TSLA, shares the painful breakdowns in MGM, WM and CCL, and addresses the sudden rise in interest rates.

This video originally premiered on July 1, 2024. Watch on our dedicated Final Bar page on StockCharts TV!

New episodes of The Final Bar premiere every weekday afternoon. You can view all previously recorded episodes at this link.